米国経済２

米国の貿易（～2018）


USA, Trade Balance 'Customs Basis' (Mil $, %), 2017,2018 ；Totalの数字が違って居ます。

China should be included the number of Hong Kong USA imported from China545.8 bil$ and exported to
China only 157.8 bil$, and trade deficit was 388.0 bil$.

Trade with UK is almost balanced, USA got surplus 2017=3198 mil$, 2018=5416 mil$. After BREXIT UK may increase export to USA.

Vietnam is now the biggest exporter among ASEAN countries. Apparently substituting China.





Trade in Goods by Principal End-Use Categories (Censusu Basis). Million $ , %

2018-12-7 What Explains the Trade Deficit Hitting a Decade-High?

Tax-cut-driven domestic demand and a potentially tariff-related fall in exports contribute to wider gap

 Shipping containers sit stacked at the Port of New Orleans in September. Imports to the U.S. grew 0.2% in October, while exports edged down 0.1% the same month.

Shipping containers sit stacked at the Port of New Orleans in September. Imports to the U.S. grew 0.2% in October, while exports edged down 0.1% the same month.  Photo:  Alex Flynn/Bloomberg News 

By Sharon Nunn

Updated Dec. 6, 2018 1:08 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON—The U.S. trade deficit reached its highest level in 10 years in October, led in part by tax-cut-driven domestic demand and a potentially tariff-related fall in exports.

The foreign-trade gap in goods and services rose 1.7% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $55.5 billion in October, the Commerce Department said Thursday. This is the largest deficit since October 2008. Imports grew 0.2% in October, while exports edged down 0.1%. The nonoil deficit is at a record level and “rising steadily,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Economics.

“Pumping up domestic demand with fiscal easing and picking fights with trading partners does that,” Mr. Shepherdson wrote in a note to clients.

U.S. Household Net Worth Rose by $2.07 Trillion in 3rd Quarter December 6, 2018 

U.S. Service-Sector Growth Accelerates in November December 6, 2018 

U.S. Productivity Revised Upward to 2.3% in Third Quarter December 6, 2018 

U.S. Private Sector Adds 179,000 Jobs in November December 6, 2018 

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The jump in imports was driven by ramped-up demand in the U.S. Americans have more money in their pockets after the Trump administration’s late-2017 tax cuts took effect at the beginning of this year, and when Americans shop, they tend to buy foreign-made goods.

On top of that, American wholesalers and manufacturers have experienced supply constraints this year, partly stemming from a shortage of qualified truck drivers to move goods around the country. This may encourage further importing by domestic buyers.

The drop in exports, meanwhile, was partly driven by a decline in soybean exports, which had contributed significantly to economic growth this year following a surge of exported soybeans ahead of looming tariffs.

In an attempt to close the widening trade gap, the Trump administration placed tariffs on billions of dollars of foreign-made products, including steel and solar panels. Foreign countries have placed retaliatory tariffs on U.S.-made products, though U.S. and Chinese officials recently agreed to hold off on any further trade barriers for 90 days while they negotiate.

October’s exports drop “partly reflects the continued drop-back in soybean shipments to China following the imposition of tariffs.…But there has also been a more general collapse in overall goods exports to China, which have now fallen by 30% over the past 12 months,” said Andrew Hunter, U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

The deficit could worsen as the dollar strengthens, making U.S.-produced products more expensive to foreign buyers. Economic growth globally appears to be cooling, which could also hamper demand from abroad.

International trade data can be volatile from month to month. In the first 10 months of 2018, the overall trade deficit increased 11.4% in October when compared with the same period in 2017.

Historically speaking, the U.S. imports more good than it exports, but runs a modest trade surplus for services. Economists attribute the chronic trade deficit the U.S. has faced for decades to Americans consuming more than they produce relative to the rest of the world’s economies.

トランプ大統領は就任以来、「アメリカ・ファースト」政策を打ち出している。その内容は年々4,500億ドルにも及ぶ経常収支の赤字を減らしたいということに尽きる。その前に年間７千億ドルを超える貿易赤字を減らさなければならない。そのためには輸入を減らして輸出を増やさなければならない。

表1．主要国の経常収支（単位：10億ドル）

米国の最も大きい貿易赤字国は中国である。2016年においては貿易赤字総額7500億ドルに及ぶ。国別内訳は、中国だ断然トップで3470億ドル（46.2％）を占めている。次いで、日本は689億ドル、3位はドイツの649億ドル、4位はメキシコは632億ドル。カナダは112億ドル。米国とメキシコとカナダはNAFTA（北米貿易協定）を締結し、一時期中断されたが2018年10月には復活している。

アメリカはトランプ政権になってから輸出入とも増え続け、貿易収支は2018年1-7月においても拡大している。全体で見ると輸出は9.6％増えたが、輸入も9.3％増えている。これでは貿易赤字は減らない。中国向けは2018年1-7月においては輸出が8.6％増えたものの輸入も8.4％増えている。

表２、アメリカと主要国との貿易バランス（単位；100万ドル、％）